Martingale Blackjack Forum
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Looking for a legal online casino can seem like a daunting task, because there are so many of them out there. However, most of the casinos on the Martingale Blackjack Forum Internet marketed for US players aren’t legitimate, which means there are only a Martingale Blackjack Forum. (Note from Arnold Snyder: To learn how to win at blackjack over the long run, with or without card counting, start with our Intro to Winning Blackjack.) Question from a Reader regarding the Martingale Betting System: I lost a substantial amount of my savings playing blackjack at casino name deleted in Atlantic City — almost $30,000. A “Martingale-four” system offers players to double to twice (for a bet of 4 units) before they return to the initial bet, and playing a “half-Martingale” system the player’s bet increases by 150% and not 200%. Because losses aren’t fully recovered, these systems aren’t as effective as the original. Martingale comes in other guises. One of them, some call a ’Super Martingale,’ where you add one unit to your next bet after doubling it. It looks like this: 1-3-7-15-31 and so on. Some hucksters have marketed it as a roulette system and sold it for $40 in a very popular gambling magazine. These measures have rendered the Martingale systems ineffective in today’s casinos. In a Martingale system the bet increases exponentially after each loss. The problem is that casinos establish betting limits on each blackjack table. For example, on a $5 blackjack table the minimum bet is $5 (one unit).
*Martingale Blackjack Forum Sites
*Martingale Blackjack Forum Yahoo
*Martingale Blackjack Forum Reviews
*Martingale Blackjack Forum Golf
By Ion Saliu,
Founder of Gambling Science, Founder of Blackjack MathematicsI. Gambling and Dreaming
II. My Mental Blackjack System, Fundamental Formula of Gambling, Martingale
III. Other Gambling Systems, Foundation, and Honesty
IV. The Fundamental Prayer of the Occult Science of Gambling
V. Resources in Gambling, Mathematics, Systems, Software, BooksI. Gambling and Dreaming
* Written on August 14, 2004 (4 WE); later updates (the later, the better!) First capture by the WayBack Machine (web.archive.org) on August 13, 2004. ’The most important questions of gambling are, for the most part, really only problems of winning and losing streaks.’
(Ion “Parpaluck” Saliu, The Gambling Master At-Large).
I finally decided to go back to the Atlantic City casinos. My bankroll was smaller than last year. I had that clear dream with Winston Churchill in the Irish Pub. I went directly to the inn of the Irish Pub and rented a room for a week. I got a good deal. Pay for six nights, get the seventh for free.
The first day was not meant for real gambling. I wanted to check a new casino: Borgata. It looked very stylish from a distance. I was surprised how good the table games were compared to the Boardwalk casinos. My games of interest were blackjack, roulette, and baccarat. The minimum and the maximum bets were better than in any of the old casinos. Blackjack tables with $10 minimum limit are available even late at night. Besides, the casino is absolutely the most stylish in Atlantic City.
I just wanted to pass the time while testing the blackjack game. I didn’t want to use my notebook on that occasion. My intention was to be much disciplined. Use my notebook, start with at least $1000 bankroll, and avoid alcohol at the table. This first night would be the only exception. I started with only $200 bankroll. I had drinks during the game. I wouldn’t open a notebook. Still, I did pretty well. I played my style, keeping track (mentally) of two types of streaks: W+ and L-.
I also played against the (old) blackjack basic strategy (OBS) when I thought the casino dealer was too hot. For example, I did split two tens against dealer’s 6 on two occasions. The BJ dealer busted both times. Other players were intrigued. I’m sure some cursed me silently. One Asian American, a good player, said to me: “You are amazing! But you know how to play your streaks!” I suspected him to be a casino guy. One of the blackjack dealers, another Asian American, a young lady, asked me what other casino games I play. The Asian Americans are the best-represented ethnic group in the Atlantic City casinos. At baccarat/mini-baccarat a clear majority of the dealers and players are Asian Americans. They put trust in their own minds.
The first night was good. I had two more winning days and nights. I was comfortably ahead. I only played blackjack, without using my notebook. I started with no more than $300 in bankroll. I always had drinks at the table. One half of me was angry at my new style of playing. That half didn’t agree with my new play. I was angry sometimes. I wanted to go home immediately. I was not disciplined. I was just a tourist on a vacation in a gambling environment.
My intent was to become a professional gambler. In fact, my second day in AC I started to look for places to rent. I got discouraged by the difficulty to find a place in Atlantic City. People at my inn told me that Atlantic City was very much a closed place. On the other hand, I saw a lot of abandoned buildings around!
Then I had two bad nights. Long streaks of 8 or 9 consecutive hands started to creep in. I didn’t cry foul play, ’cuz I don’t think there was dealer cheating. One night I had 7 consecutive losses in one shoe. The next shoe gave me 8 consecutive losing hands. The following shoe gave me 11 losing hands in a row! To add insult to the injury, a casino boss came over to congratulate the dealer! That was the thing that I hated the most during my trip! Bastard behavior on that casino man’s part! I had started to hesitate in my play. I had already abandoned martingaling my losing streaks. I’ll present my system in the next section.
I was mad at myself and meself only. The realization was I had no chance of becoming a professional gambler. Two key elements were missing: a place to live in Atlantic City, and number two, a much larger bankroll. Tourism and professional gambling are a contradiction in terms. I realize I must treat it as a job. Sleep and eat at home. Go to work, preferably from 9 to 5. Drive my car directly to the casino of the day and play only in that place. When I go to work, I don’t drink alcohol. I am well rested also. During my gambling adventure I was very, very tired. My room was close to the boardwalk. It was noisy at least until midnight. Then… noise again early in the morning… The seagulls make their own contribution starting to scream early in the morning. Then, I wondered around for places to eat.. I had no legs under me!
The size of the bankroll is the other essential element of professional gambling. The minimum minimorum is $10,000 for the current conditions in Atlantic City. The bankroll has no other purpose but casino gambling. It’s not money to eat or to pay the rent. It’s money for gambling and nothing else.
Then, there is the starting bankroll. If I go to a table, I start with double the amount of the maximum bet at the table. Rarely, and very rarely, the starting bankroll should be equal to the maximum limit at the table. Most players I saw started the blackjack operation with just $100. Most of them were quickly cleaned up. Some chipped in with another $100. They should have started with the $200. At least, I always started with $200-$300. It is necessary to have enough money to weather bad moments, as I had. If I ever gamble as a tourist (no more than three-day trips) it won’t happen if my bankroll is under $5,000 (five thousand).
I recovered a little after those two bad days. All in all, my trip cost me about $1,000. I considered it a $1,000 vacation — the most expensive in my life. I discovered also a new blackjack game. It only has one table in Atlantic City — at Caesar’s. It’s called Double Attack Blackjack. It is not Spanish 21.
The game has no Tens, but has A, J, Q, K. Blackjack pays even money (too bad!) It has two betting boxes. One is the betting box like at the regular blackjack. The second box is the interesting one. The first card in the round is dealer’s face card. Seeing the first card, the player has the option to place an equal bet in the second betting box. It’s like a double up your bet. Usually, I double attacked dealer’s 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (and rarely 7) face card.
Buy zynga poker chips mobile. There is another intriguing bet: Bust It! At the beginning of the game, before the dealer shows the first card, a blackjack player places the initial bet. At that time, the player can place from $1 to $50 in the Bust It! box. If the dealer busts in three cards, the player receives additional winnings depending on the bust card. The bonus wager pays out according to what the dealer’s third card is, as shown in the table below:
If the dealer has an eight in her hand, and draws an eight of the same color or same suit as the eight already in her hand, there is a bigger bonus payout as follows:
I bet once $5 that the dealer would bust in three cards. It happened. The third card that busted dealer’s hand was an 8. The payout was 8 to 1. There are two bonuses. If dealer busts with 8, 8, 8 of the same color, the payout is 50 to 1. If dealer busts with 8, 8, 8 of the same suit, the payout is 200 to 1. The first time I played the game, the dealer had 8, 8 of the same color. He called the pit boss to witness the third card. It wasn’t a bonus 8.
That first time also, they had a dealer who was learning the game. In my last hours in AC, at the same game table, I taught three casino people how to play the game! I’m not kidding! They didn’t know well the double down and split situations. I played the new blackjack twice and I was a winner twice. Not big winnings, though. I treated it as a learning experience. I don’t know how long that game would last. Another player and I won a few times in a row, including Bust It! bets. A floor man said that the blackjack professional counters win that game! Baloney… card counting is!
• Read the official rules of Double Attack Blackjack (DABJ) as approved by New Jersey Casino Control Commission: state.nj.us/casinos/may17-2.htm.
We must count for all 3-card Double-Attack Blackjack hands in order to calculate the dealer bust in three cards. Thus, the total-total possible 3-card hands at DABJ is Arrangements (48, 3) = 48 * 47 * 46 = 103,776. And that leads to Bust It! odds of 15864 / 103776= 15.3% (or 1 in 6.5). Surely not a good deal if you bet on Bust It! every hand.
The expectation is two BJ dealer busts in 13 hands (2 or 3 cards per hand only). The degree of certainty that the dealer busts at least 2 times in 13 hands is 61.3%. You can count the rounds in groups of 13 at a time. The dealer busts about two of three such groups.
I wrote a unique piece of software that attempts, for the first time ever, to generate all possible blackjack hands. I uploaded the output file for 2-card and 3-card hands for Double-Attack Blackjack:
BjDoubleAttackHands.TXT
You’ll have a better understanding of the Bust It! wager.
Total DABJ Hands: 47400
Total Non-Bust Hands: 31536
Total Dealer BUSTS: 15864 (33.47%)
Total BlackJacks (10+A): 96 (4.26%)
Bust It! Analysis
Total possibilities (arrangements): 48 * 47 * 46 = 103,776
Bust It! Odds: 15864 / 103776= 15.3% (1 in 6.5)II. My Blackjack System, Fundamental Formula of Gambling, and MartingaleMartingale Blackjack Forum SitesI founded my blackjack system on the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). My full system, as used with a notebook, keeps track of several streaks: Win (W), Loss (L), Dealer Bust (DB), Player Bust (PB), Dealer Blackjack (DJ), Player BJ (PJ). In my trimmed down version, without the notebook, I only keep track of two streaks: Win (W+), Loss (L-). This is a mental gambling system — the records are kept in my memory.
As such, the mental gambling system requires discipline. Unfortunately, I didn’t apply my gambling system with the required discipline in 2004. I repeated that kind of mistake only once in more than 10 years thereafter. I played on a late Saturday night in an area blustered by an amateur rock band. I managed to escape with only a $100 loss.
I noticed a card-c(o)unting team lose big money that night, at my table. They believed I was a counter too. They didn’t realize I increased my bet according to my WL streaks! Them guys quarreled amongst themselves and left when one of them stood on 16 versus dealer’s 10. Looked like the “count” was too high for hit!
If you really want to count cards, this is the only way to go:
*ABC: The Best Blackjack Card-Counting System by Ion Saliu.
*This gambling system offers no guarantees whatsoever. I only guarantee it is founded on undeniable mathematics. Nor do I make promises of any kind. Take it as my personal style of playing blackjack. This is a one-shot deal and may NOT be followed up by any personal requests from gamblers.
* I do trust my streaks-based gambling system to the maximum, however. Only the streaks are backed by mathematical formulas. Every streak-length occurs as calculated by theory of probability: with a degree of certainty within a number of trials (e.g. BJ hands or roulette spins). I made the disclaimer above only to extinguish potential fire by casinos and/or gambling authors (especially blackjack card-counting “bishops” or “gurus”). They have always attacked and threatened me, especially because of the Fundamental Formula of Gambling. Without a disclaimer, they would have invented situations of huge losses caused by my streak-theory gambling system… some did try with a vengeance!
My count always starts at: 0 - 0. I say mentally zero – zero.
~ The first number represents my consecutive losses;
~ The second number represents my consecutive skips without two or more consecutive wins. This parameter is trickier to grasp. I still have difficulties keeping accurate track of it mentally. It is much easier on paper.
* If I lose my first hand, the count becomes 1 / 0. I say mentally one – zero. If I lose also the next hand, the count becomes 2 / 0. I say mentally two – zero.
If I win my first hand, the count becomes 0 / 0-and-a-half. I say mentally zero – zero-and-a-half. The half simply indicates that the parameter is still running. If I lose the following hand, the count becomes 1 - 1. I say mentally one – one. That means I lost one consecutive hand; I also have a streak of one without winning two hands in a row.
* If I win my first hand, the count becomes 0 - 0 and a half. I say mentally zero – zero-half. If I win also the following hand, the count becomes 0 - 0. I say mentally zero – zero. That means I have no consecutive losses; I also won two hands in a row. Every time I win 2 consecutive blackjack hands, the second count is automatically set to 0. The mental count becomes something – zero.
If I win my first hand, the count becomes 0 / 0 and a half. I say mentally zero – zero-half. If I lose the following hand, the count becomes 1 - 1. I say mentally one – one. That means I lost one consecutive hand; I also have a streak of one without winning two hands in a row. I lose also the following hand. The count becomes 2 & 1. I say mentally two – one.
Martingale Blackjack Forum Yahoo
* I win the following hand. The count becomes 0 - 1 and a half. I say mentally zero – one and a half. I lose the following hand. The count becomes 1 & 2. I say mentally one – two. It means I lost one consecutive hand; I also have a streak of two without winning two hands in a row. That is, in two consecutive situations, my win was not followed immediately by another win.
Let’s say I won one blackjack hand. The count is 0 - 0 and a half. I lose the following three blackjack hands. The count is 3 - 1. I say mentally three – one. I win the following hand. The count becomes 0 - 1-half. I say mentally zero – one and a half.
I lose the next two blackjack hands. The count is 2 - 2. I say mentally two – two. If I lose the very next hand, the left count increases by one, while the right count remains unchanged. Mentally: three – two.
I win the following hand. The count becomes 0 - 2 and a half. I say mentally zero – two-half.I lose the next four blackjack hands. The count is 4 - 3. I say mentally four – three.
* Every time I lose a blackjack hand, the left count increases by one. Every time I win a blackjack hand, followed immediately by another win, the right count is set to 0. Every time I win a blackjack hand, followed immediately by a loss, the right count increases by a half. And so on… and so forth…
With record-keeping on paper (notebook), I track the entire session. I can see the streaks of all lengths. I know I will lose 4, 5, 6, 7 … more blackjack hands in a row. I know also I will win 4, 5, 6, 7… more blackjack hands in a row. I look at the past 30-50 blackjack hands and decide that I should expect soon a 4-5 winning streak. Or, I shouldn’t expect a losing streak longer than 4-5, because I already had a longer losing streak. There is no gambler’s fallacy, really; or reversed gambler’s fallacy. Read the pages in the Resources section for undeniable mathematical facts.
I noticed that the second count is less streaky than the first one. That is, I win more regularly two (or more) hands in a row. I keep that in mind when I martingale my streaks. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling tells me that I win at least once in 7 hands with a degree of certainty of 99%.
I martingale more aggressively at the beginning of my blackjack game. I martingale the first count when it reaches 4. Since the second parameter is more consistent, I martingale it after it reaches 3. I go up to 7 in both cases (2-4-8 and 2-4-8-18). I stop at 7. My probability software Streaks proves the more aggressive betting at the beginning of a blackjack (or gambling) session. The degree of certainty DC for long streaks (losing or winning streaks) is lower.
I become more cautious after 100 blackjack hands or so. I martingale the first count after it reaches 6 (or 5 earlier in the game) and the second count after it reaches 5 (or 4 earlier in the game). I go as much as I can or allowed. If I sense that the streak is real bad, especially inside the same shoe, I stop the Martingale after 7, and start another one with 3 units after the previous streak ends.
* Test Ion Saliu’s Mental Blackjack System to validate gambling streaks strategies with high roller blackjack software. See screenshot above.
*The Best Blackjack Strategy, System Tested with the Best Blackjack Software.
•I released in April 2005 blackjack software to analyze streaks: Blackjack, BJAQK. BJAQK stands for: Best on Jacks Aces Queens Kings – and all other cards. See image above. The blackjack streaks software is available from the Software Download Site, software category 5.5. The program is a probability and statistical analyzer of thousands of Black Jack hands from the perspective of a strict blackjack old basic strategy (OBS) player. This program is a great complement to the free blackjack strategy prese
https://diarynote-jp.indered.space
Looking for a legal online casino can seem like a daunting task, because there are so many of them out there. However, most of the casinos on the Martingale Blackjack Forum Internet marketed for US players aren’t legitimate, which means there are only a Martingale Blackjack Forum. (Note from Arnold Snyder: To learn how to win at blackjack over the long run, with or without card counting, start with our Intro to Winning Blackjack.) Question from a Reader regarding the Martingale Betting System: I lost a substantial amount of my savings playing blackjack at casino name deleted in Atlantic City — almost $30,000. A “Martingale-four” system offers players to double to twice (for a bet of 4 units) before they return to the initial bet, and playing a “half-Martingale” system the player’s bet increases by 150% and not 200%. Because losses aren’t fully recovered, these systems aren’t as effective as the original. Martingale comes in other guises. One of them, some call a ’Super Martingale,’ where you add one unit to your next bet after doubling it. It looks like this: 1-3-7-15-31 and so on. Some hucksters have marketed it as a roulette system and sold it for $40 in a very popular gambling magazine. These measures have rendered the Martingale systems ineffective in today’s casinos. In a Martingale system the bet increases exponentially after each loss. The problem is that casinos establish betting limits on each blackjack table. For example, on a $5 blackjack table the minimum bet is $5 (one unit).
*Martingale Blackjack Forum Sites
*Martingale Blackjack Forum Yahoo
*Martingale Blackjack Forum Reviews
*Martingale Blackjack Forum Golf
By Ion Saliu,
Founder of Gambling Science, Founder of Blackjack MathematicsI. Gambling and Dreaming
II. My Mental Blackjack System, Fundamental Formula of Gambling, Martingale
III. Other Gambling Systems, Foundation, and Honesty
IV. The Fundamental Prayer of the Occult Science of Gambling
V. Resources in Gambling, Mathematics, Systems, Software, BooksI. Gambling and Dreaming
* Written on August 14, 2004 (4 WE); later updates (the later, the better!) First capture by the WayBack Machine (web.archive.org) on August 13, 2004. ’The most important questions of gambling are, for the most part, really only problems of winning and losing streaks.’
(Ion “Parpaluck” Saliu, The Gambling Master At-Large).
I finally decided to go back to the Atlantic City casinos. My bankroll was smaller than last year. I had that clear dream with Winston Churchill in the Irish Pub. I went directly to the inn of the Irish Pub and rented a room for a week. I got a good deal. Pay for six nights, get the seventh for free.
The first day was not meant for real gambling. I wanted to check a new casino: Borgata. It looked very stylish from a distance. I was surprised how good the table games were compared to the Boardwalk casinos. My games of interest were blackjack, roulette, and baccarat. The minimum and the maximum bets were better than in any of the old casinos. Blackjack tables with $10 minimum limit are available even late at night. Besides, the casino is absolutely the most stylish in Atlantic City.
I just wanted to pass the time while testing the blackjack game. I didn’t want to use my notebook on that occasion. My intention was to be much disciplined. Use my notebook, start with at least $1000 bankroll, and avoid alcohol at the table. This first night would be the only exception. I started with only $200 bankroll. I had drinks during the game. I wouldn’t open a notebook. Still, I did pretty well. I played my style, keeping track (mentally) of two types of streaks: W+ and L-.
I also played against the (old) blackjack basic strategy (OBS) when I thought the casino dealer was too hot. For example, I did split two tens against dealer’s 6 on two occasions. The BJ dealer busted both times. Other players were intrigued. I’m sure some cursed me silently. One Asian American, a good player, said to me: “You are amazing! But you know how to play your streaks!” I suspected him to be a casino guy. One of the blackjack dealers, another Asian American, a young lady, asked me what other casino games I play. The Asian Americans are the best-represented ethnic group in the Atlantic City casinos. At baccarat/mini-baccarat a clear majority of the dealers and players are Asian Americans. They put trust in their own minds.
The first night was good. I had two more winning days and nights. I was comfortably ahead. I only played blackjack, without using my notebook. I started with no more than $300 in bankroll. I always had drinks at the table. One half of me was angry at my new style of playing. That half didn’t agree with my new play. I was angry sometimes. I wanted to go home immediately. I was not disciplined. I was just a tourist on a vacation in a gambling environment.
My intent was to become a professional gambler. In fact, my second day in AC I started to look for places to rent. I got discouraged by the difficulty to find a place in Atlantic City. People at my inn told me that Atlantic City was very much a closed place. On the other hand, I saw a lot of abandoned buildings around!
Then I had two bad nights. Long streaks of 8 or 9 consecutive hands started to creep in. I didn’t cry foul play, ’cuz I don’t think there was dealer cheating. One night I had 7 consecutive losses in one shoe. The next shoe gave me 8 consecutive losing hands. The following shoe gave me 11 losing hands in a row! To add insult to the injury, a casino boss came over to congratulate the dealer! That was the thing that I hated the most during my trip! Bastard behavior on that casino man’s part! I had started to hesitate in my play. I had already abandoned martingaling my losing streaks. I’ll present my system in the next section.
I was mad at myself and meself only. The realization was I had no chance of becoming a professional gambler. Two key elements were missing: a place to live in Atlantic City, and number two, a much larger bankroll. Tourism and professional gambling are a contradiction in terms. I realize I must treat it as a job. Sleep and eat at home. Go to work, preferably from 9 to 5. Drive my car directly to the casino of the day and play only in that place. When I go to work, I don’t drink alcohol. I am well rested also. During my gambling adventure I was very, very tired. My room was close to the boardwalk. It was noisy at least until midnight. Then… noise again early in the morning… The seagulls make their own contribution starting to scream early in the morning. Then, I wondered around for places to eat.. I had no legs under me!
The size of the bankroll is the other essential element of professional gambling. The minimum minimorum is $10,000 for the current conditions in Atlantic City. The bankroll has no other purpose but casino gambling. It’s not money to eat or to pay the rent. It’s money for gambling and nothing else.
Then, there is the starting bankroll. If I go to a table, I start with double the amount of the maximum bet at the table. Rarely, and very rarely, the starting bankroll should be equal to the maximum limit at the table. Most players I saw started the blackjack operation with just $100. Most of them were quickly cleaned up. Some chipped in with another $100. They should have started with the $200. At least, I always started with $200-$300. It is necessary to have enough money to weather bad moments, as I had. If I ever gamble as a tourist (no more than three-day trips) it won’t happen if my bankroll is under $5,000 (five thousand).
I recovered a little after those two bad days. All in all, my trip cost me about $1,000. I considered it a $1,000 vacation — the most expensive in my life. I discovered also a new blackjack game. It only has one table in Atlantic City — at Caesar’s. It’s called Double Attack Blackjack. It is not Spanish 21.
The game has no Tens, but has A, J, Q, K. Blackjack pays even money (too bad!) It has two betting boxes. One is the betting box like at the regular blackjack. The second box is the interesting one. The first card in the round is dealer’s face card. Seeing the first card, the player has the option to place an equal bet in the second betting box. It’s like a double up your bet. Usually, I double attacked dealer’s 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (and rarely 7) face card.
Buy zynga poker chips mobile. There is another intriguing bet: Bust It! At the beginning of the game, before the dealer shows the first card, a blackjack player places the initial bet. At that time, the player can place from $1 to $50 in the Bust It! box. If the dealer busts in three cards, the player receives additional winnings depending on the bust card. The bonus wager pays out according to what the dealer’s third card is, as shown in the table below:
If the dealer has an eight in her hand, and draws an eight of the same color or same suit as the eight already in her hand, there is a bigger bonus payout as follows:
I bet once $5 that the dealer would bust in three cards. It happened. The third card that busted dealer’s hand was an 8. The payout was 8 to 1. There are two bonuses. If dealer busts with 8, 8, 8 of the same color, the payout is 50 to 1. If dealer busts with 8, 8, 8 of the same suit, the payout is 200 to 1. The first time I played the game, the dealer had 8, 8 of the same color. He called the pit boss to witness the third card. It wasn’t a bonus 8.
That first time also, they had a dealer who was learning the game. In my last hours in AC, at the same game table, I taught three casino people how to play the game! I’m not kidding! They didn’t know well the double down and split situations. I played the new blackjack twice and I was a winner twice. Not big winnings, though. I treated it as a learning experience. I don’t know how long that game would last. Another player and I won a few times in a row, including Bust It! bets. A floor man said that the blackjack professional counters win that game! Baloney… card counting is!
• Read the official rules of Double Attack Blackjack (DABJ) as approved by New Jersey Casino Control Commission: state.nj.us/casinos/may17-2.htm.
We must count for all 3-card Double-Attack Blackjack hands in order to calculate the dealer bust in three cards. Thus, the total-total possible 3-card hands at DABJ is Arrangements (48, 3) = 48 * 47 * 46 = 103,776. And that leads to Bust It! odds of 15864 / 103776= 15.3% (or 1 in 6.5). Surely not a good deal if you bet on Bust It! every hand.
The expectation is two BJ dealer busts in 13 hands (2 or 3 cards per hand only). The degree of certainty that the dealer busts at least 2 times in 13 hands is 61.3%. You can count the rounds in groups of 13 at a time. The dealer busts about two of three such groups.
I wrote a unique piece of software that attempts, for the first time ever, to generate all possible blackjack hands. I uploaded the output file for 2-card and 3-card hands for Double-Attack Blackjack:
BjDoubleAttackHands.TXT
You’ll have a better understanding of the Bust It! wager.
Total DABJ Hands: 47400
Total Non-Bust Hands: 31536
Total Dealer BUSTS: 15864 (33.47%)
Total BlackJacks (10+A): 96 (4.26%)
Bust It! Analysis
Total possibilities (arrangements): 48 * 47 * 46 = 103,776
Bust It! Odds: 15864 / 103776= 15.3% (1 in 6.5)II. My Blackjack System, Fundamental Formula of Gambling, and MartingaleMartingale Blackjack Forum SitesI founded my blackjack system on the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). My full system, as used with a notebook, keeps track of several streaks: Win (W), Loss (L), Dealer Bust (DB), Player Bust (PB), Dealer Blackjack (DJ), Player BJ (PJ). In my trimmed down version, without the notebook, I only keep track of two streaks: Win (W+), Loss (L-). This is a mental gambling system — the records are kept in my memory.
As such, the mental gambling system requires discipline. Unfortunately, I didn’t apply my gambling system with the required discipline in 2004. I repeated that kind of mistake only once in more than 10 years thereafter. I played on a late Saturday night in an area blustered by an amateur rock band. I managed to escape with only a $100 loss.
I noticed a card-c(o)unting team lose big money that night, at my table. They believed I was a counter too. They didn’t realize I increased my bet according to my WL streaks! Them guys quarreled amongst themselves and left when one of them stood on 16 versus dealer’s 10. Looked like the “count” was too high for hit!
If you really want to count cards, this is the only way to go:
*ABC: The Best Blackjack Card-Counting System by Ion Saliu.
*This gambling system offers no guarantees whatsoever. I only guarantee it is founded on undeniable mathematics. Nor do I make promises of any kind. Take it as my personal style of playing blackjack. This is a one-shot deal and may NOT be followed up by any personal requests from gamblers.
* I do trust my streaks-based gambling system to the maximum, however. Only the streaks are backed by mathematical formulas. Every streak-length occurs as calculated by theory of probability: with a degree of certainty within a number of trials (e.g. BJ hands or roulette spins). I made the disclaimer above only to extinguish potential fire by casinos and/or gambling authors (especially blackjack card-counting “bishops” or “gurus”). They have always attacked and threatened me, especially because of the Fundamental Formula of Gambling. Without a disclaimer, they would have invented situations of huge losses caused by my streak-theory gambling system… some did try with a vengeance!
My count always starts at: 0 - 0. I say mentally zero – zero.
~ The first number represents my consecutive losses;
~ The second number represents my consecutive skips without two or more consecutive wins. This parameter is trickier to grasp. I still have difficulties keeping accurate track of it mentally. It is much easier on paper.
* If I lose my first hand, the count becomes 1 / 0. I say mentally one – zero. If I lose also the next hand, the count becomes 2 / 0. I say mentally two – zero.
If I win my first hand, the count becomes 0 / 0-and-a-half. I say mentally zero – zero-and-a-half. The half simply indicates that the parameter is still running. If I lose the following hand, the count becomes 1 - 1. I say mentally one – one. That means I lost one consecutive hand; I also have a streak of one without winning two hands in a row.
* If I win my first hand, the count becomes 0 - 0 and a half. I say mentally zero – zero-half. If I win also the following hand, the count becomes 0 - 0. I say mentally zero – zero. That means I have no consecutive losses; I also won two hands in a row. Every time I win 2 consecutive blackjack hands, the second count is automatically set to 0. The mental count becomes something – zero.
If I win my first hand, the count becomes 0 / 0 and a half. I say mentally zero – zero-half. If I lose the following hand, the count becomes 1 - 1. I say mentally one – one. That means I lost one consecutive hand; I also have a streak of one without winning two hands in a row. I lose also the following hand. The count becomes 2 & 1. I say mentally two – one.
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* I win the following hand. The count becomes 0 - 1 and a half. I say mentally zero – one and a half. I lose the following hand. The count becomes 1 & 2. I say mentally one – two. It means I lost one consecutive hand; I also have a streak of two without winning two hands in a row. That is, in two consecutive situations, my win was not followed immediately by another win.
Let’s say I won one blackjack hand. The count is 0 - 0 and a half. I lose the following three blackjack hands. The count is 3 - 1. I say mentally three – one. I win the following hand. The count becomes 0 - 1-half. I say mentally zero – one and a half.
I lose the next two blackjack hands. The count is 2 - 2. I say mentally two – two. If I lose the very next hand, the left count increases by one, while the right count remains unchanged. Mentally: three – two.
I win the following hand. The count becomes 0 - 2 and a half. I say mentally zero – two-half.I lose the next four blackjack hands. The count is 4 - 3. I say mentally four – three.
* Every time I lose a blackjack hand, the left count increases by one. Every time I win a blackjack hand, followed immediately by another win, the right count is set to 0. Every time I win a blackjack hand, followed immediately by a loss, the right count increases by a half. And so on… and so forth…
With record-keeping on paper (notebook), I track the entire session. I can see the streaks of all lengths. I know I will lose 4, 5, 6, 7 … more blackjack hands in a row. I know also I will win 4, 5, 6, 7… more blackjack hands in a row. I look at the past 30-50 blackjack hands and decide that I should expect soon a 4-5 winning streak. Or, I shouldn’t expect a losing streak longer than 4-5, because I already had a longer losing streak. There is no gambler’s fallacy, really; or reversed gambler’s fallacy. Read the pages in the Resources section for undeniable mathematical facts.
I noticed that the second count is less streaky than the first one. That is, I win more regularly two (or more) hands in a row. I keep that in mind when I martingale my streaks. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling tells me that I win at least once in 7 hands with a degree of certainty of 99%.
I martingale more aggressively at the beginning of my blackjack game. I martingale the first count when it reaches 4. Since the second parameter is more consistent, I martingale it after it reaches 3. I go up to 7 in both cases (2-4-8 and 2-4-8-18). I stop at 7. My probability software Streaks proves the more aggressive betting at the beginning of a blackjack (or gambling) session. The degree of certainty DC for long streaks (losing or winning streaks) is lower.
I become more cautious after 100 blackjack hands or so. I martingale the first count after it reaches 6 (or 5 earlier in the game) and the second count after it reaches 5 (or 4 earlier in the game). I go as much as I can or allowed. If I sense that the streak is real bad, especially inside the same shoe, I stop the Martingale after 7, and start another one with 3 units after the previous streak ends.
* Test Ion Saliu’s Mental Blackjack System to validate gambling streaks strategies with high roller blackjack software. See screenshot above.
*The Best Blackjack Strategy, System Tested with the Best Blackjack Software.
•I released in April 2005 blackjack software to analyze streaks: Blackjack, BJAQK. BJAQK stands for: Best on Jacks Aces Queens Kings – and all other cards. See image above. The blackjack streaks software is available from the Software Download Site, software category 5.5. The program is a probability and statistical analyzer of thousands of Black Jack hands from the perspective of a strict blackjack old basic strategy (OBS) player. This program is a great complement to the free blackjack strategy prese
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